Martinsville Speedway (Martinsville, Va.) — Kyle Larson needs a mere nine points Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway to clinch his third Cup title.
And even if he doesn’t earn that many points, Christopher Bell or Denny Hamlin would have to win and earn significant stage points for a shot at Larson, who enters the finale at 67 points ahead of Bell and 70 ahead of Hamlin.
Only in four races this year has Larson not scored nine points, including three where he wrecked out of the event.
The conventional wisdom would be to maybe go 90 percent at a track where Larson has won two of the last four races.
But there’s a problem with that.
Kyle Larson enters Homestead with a healthy lead in The Chase. (Getty Images)
Homestead is a track that rewards aggressiveness but also riding on the edge and Larson needs a car to match the aggressiveness. It is the only way, he says, he knows how to race Homestead and that's 100 percent running inches off the wall.
"For me at Homestead, I feel like when I'm not running the pace that I need to run, I feel like I'm closer to having mistakes pop up," Larson told me and other reporters on Sunday night after a ninth-place finish at Martinsville.
"We’ll see, but I plan to go there and just run a normal Homestead race for me. That’s what feels comfortable to me, and that's where I can make consistent laps."
The Hendrick Motorsports team has been working on its Homestead plan for several weeks, obviously thinking it would be in a tighter points battle. Larson crew chief Cliff Daniels said he won’t change the plan.
Larson and his team are sticking to their plan at Homestead, despite being ahead of Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin in The Chase. (Getty Images)
"It's going to be very in line for us to stay with the prep that we've already put in place," Daniels told me and other reporters after the race. "There’s so many good things that we've built to get us to this point for Homestead that we’ve got to see it through and we’ve just got to give justice to all the hard work that's put in by not counting it too early.
"You’ve still got to put your head down, prepare a good car and go execute a solid weekend."
It just seems so counterintuitive. It’s like they are in the perfect position to roll out and play prevent defense and yet they won’t.
"I learned a lesson a long time ago with Kyle that if we do anything to prepare to run 90 percent, you're down on grip or you're not as sharp as you need to be, especially at a place like Homestead or a place like Darlington where on paper it's worn out pavement and you've got to take care of your tires and take care of your stuff, his comfort zone is still going 10 out of 10," Daniels said.
Larson crew chief Cliff Daniels is confident that they prep his team has in place is the right move for the season finale. (Getty Images)
"We've got to we've got to get everything we can for car prep, car potential, get the setup dialed in. And I don't expect him to be off the wall at all. He's going to be ripping the boards and be really fast doing it. That’s what makes him so special. He’ll be comfortable in that zone."
Their boss is good with that plan.
"He's a competitor," team president Jeff Andrews said in a news conference at Martinsville. "He's going to go out there and drive 10/10ths. That's what it's going to take. We have a lot of competition chasing us there.
"I think there's a point where you’ve got to be smart, have to take care of the car there. But we're looking forward to putting our best foot forward and going there and executing and doing what Hendrick Motorsports does."
One thing is to focus on the task at hand. But how will Larson avoid the thoughts of disaster creeping into his head considering only a disaster will keep him from winning the title?
"Those fluke things … it's hard not to have them creep in your mind, but also you’ve just got to stay focused on going there and preparing the best that you can," Larson said. "I’m going to prepare to dominate like you do any weekend. Spend time studying, trying to get your car driving right in the sim, study other drivers, all the things.
"And then if something fluke happens, it happens, and then it just wasn't meant to be. We’ll see. Hopefully, the first couple stages go good."
O’Reilly Chase
Will Justin Allgaier win the O'Reilly Series Chase this weekend? (Getty Images)
There are five drivers left in contention for the O’Reilly Series championship.
Justin Allgaier has a 22-pont lead on Jesse Love, 23 points on Corey Day, 31 points on Travis Kvapil and 42 points on Sheldon Creed.
Allgaier clinches with 54 points, so if he swept the stages (or earned 19 stage points as well as the fastest lap point), he could clinch with a second- or third-place finish, no matter what anyone else does. So pretty much the only way he guarantees himself the title is with a win.
Truck Chase
Layne Riggs (No. 34) and Kaden Honeycutt (No. 11) are the two drivers leading the field in the hunt or The Chase in trucks. (Getty Images)
There are two drivers with a shot at the truck title, as Kaden Honeycutt has a 20-point lead on Layne Riggs. If Riggs wins, he would win the title, as long as he earns more stage points (or even stage points with the fastest lap point) than Honeycutt.
The biggest factor might not be either of those drivers.
Defending series champion Corey Heim will be entered in the race as a teammate to Honeycutt, and the two-time Cup winner this year likely will be the favorite to win. If that happens, then Riggs needs to close the gap in the stages and then hope to finish making up the 20 points with the final result.
In The News
— Ford announced its driver lineup for its Salute to Veterans event Nov. 11 on the Daytona International Speedway road course. Drivers will compete in race-ready Mustang Dark Horses with a 15-minute qualifying and 30-minute race. Drivers will be NASCAR drivers Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Noah Gragson, Ryan Preece, Austin Cindric, Layne Riggs, Ty Majeski and Frankie Muniz as well as Joey Hand, Ben Hobson and Logan Sargeant.
— Riley Herbst was able to race at Martinsville a week after tearing a ligament in his left hand in a violent crash a week earlier at Talladega. Herbst said they consulted with surgeons, who indicated the tear was in an area that didn’t need surgery.
— Kaulig Racing has parted with Ty Dillon crew chief Andrew Dickeson. Technical director Mike Cook took over at Martinsville and will guide the Dillon car this weekend at Homestead.
— Anthony Alfredo and Parker Retzlaff will return to Viking Motorsports next season with the same driver-crew chief paring from this season. Retzlaff is 11th in the standings; Alfredo is 16th.
— After eight seasons, Timmy Hill will close his NASCAR truck series team and will continue his role as a driver at another organization.
— Cleetus McFarland, a YouTube content creator who owns a race track and is a motorsports enthusiast, will drive for Richard Childress Racing for the full ARCA season in 2027.
— Dystany Spurlock will compete in 17 ARCA races for Alpha Prime Racing in 2027.
— Max Papis has retired as an INDYCAR steward, a position he held for the last 11 INDYCAR seasons. No replacement has been named.
— USF Pro 2000 runnerup Leonardo Escorpioni to drive in the Indy NXT Series for HMD Motorsports in 2027
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